Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, February 14th

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite mixed economic news. Stocks are relatively calm with the Dow down 8 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (1.57%), but a little weakness again late yesterday will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates nearly unchanged from Thursday’s early pricing.



30 yr - 1.57%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Retail Sales

The first of this morning’s three relevant economic reports was January's Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 0.3% rise in retail-level sales, matching expectations. A secondary reading that tracks sales excluding more volatile and costly auto transactions also pegged forecasts. What made this report slightly favorable for bonds and mortgage rates were downward revisions to December’s results for both readings, indicating consumers spent less that month than previously thought.



Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

January's Industrial Production data was next, coming at 9:15 AM ET. It showed a 0.3% decline as it was expected to do. The decrease in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities signals weaker economic activity, but since it came as no surprise it has had little impact on today’s trading or mortgage pricing.



University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Lastly, we got February's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 100.9, exceeding predictions of 99.3 and up from January’s final reading of 99.8. The increase means more surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial and employment situations than did last month. Since this index is considered to be an indicator of future consumer spending trends, the rise is bad news for rates as it points towards stronger levels of consumer spending in the near future. Fortunately, this report is considered to be only moderately important to the markets.




Next week has several relevant economic reports that we will be watching in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting, but none are considered to be key releases or expected to be a market mover. The financial and mortgage markets will be closed Monday for the President’s Day holiday and will reopen for regular trading Tuesday. Look for details on all of next week’s calendar in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.